Last
Friday night I had a bit of a scare. Our power went out very
suddenly. That's not unusual in Natchitoches. But, when I went
outside as I usually do just to see if it's just my house, our
street, etc., there didn't seem to be any of the normal sky-glow from
the heart of town just a mile or so away. Not terribly unexpected.
Then I noticed an odd phenomenon. I was seeing random flashes all
around me, but I was hearing no thunder and seeing no lightning
bolts. Nor did the sky seem cloudy, at least directly overhead, the
only clear view of the sky since our area is called “Pecan Park,”
being an old pecan orchard with a good number of trees that survive
to this day. Indeed, I could see a fair number of stars. And the
random flashes continued. At 9 pm, it being still almost 90 F, I
thought of heat lightning, but again, I was seeing no bolts – in
any direction. Living in Louisiana, having weathered a couple of
good-sized hurricanes in Baton Rouge during the '90s – most notably
Andrew – I've seen transformers blow. And that's what I
immediately thought of.
My
son had, a few minutes before, headed out to take his girlfriend to
where she leaves her car when she comes into town. (She lives about
half an hour away, and usually she drives about half way and he picks
her up at a conveniently located parking lot.) After several failed
attempts, I finally reached him and found that she had talked to her
mother and found out that their little town was without power as well
– which meant that the effects were considerably wider than just
Natchitoches. My home's wifi depending on power to work, I had no
luck accessing the cellular data network to see how much wider the
effects might be. So I started trying to call my brother, who lives
in Alabama. Several failed calls passed before I managed to briefly
talk to him – not even long enough to ask the obvious question. So
I started attempting text messaging, which will often work when calls
will not (I have no idea why). It was quite some time before he
responded and my mind was somewhat put at ease to find out that
everything was all right there – although I still had no idea how
widespread the outage here really was.
In
the end, it all obviously came to nothing. Our power came back up
after about an hour. Once Internet access was reestablished, it was
easy to determine that there were indeed scattered storms in the
area, and likely the outage was related to those in some manner.
Or, possibly, it was indeed heat lightning. Whatever the cause, it
was indeed a local outage. But the experience was one to make me
think. It was very surreal. For about an hour I had no real
contact with the outside world. No Internet. No information, which
in this day and age I am used to having at my fingertips 24/7. As I
was talking to my brother about it later, I suggested he look up the
term, “Carrington Event.” Because that's where my mind had gone.
There
is a danger in being a bit of an overeducated geek who has a lifelong
fascination with space and science. For several years I've been
aware of an approaching danger that actually comes around roughly every eleven years or so. Most people think of sunspot activity,
which waxes and wanes in an eleven-year cycle, as a bit of an inconvenience that will occasionally
interfere with cell phone service. The potential consequences are
far more harrowing than that. We are currently in a period of
increasing sunspot activity and solar flares that will max out next
year, 2013. In fact, just the day previous to our strange power
outage, on Thursday, the sun had spat out another massive solar flare, just the latest of many in the past few
months. The 1859 Carrington Event resulted from the largest solar
flare ever recorded. Besides giving rise to aurorae visible as far
south as the Caribbean, it caused widespread telegraph failures and
even fires as the electromagnetic surge induced currents of such
magnitude that the existing lines could not handle them. Were such
an event to occur today, the effects would be far worse, as described
in this article on the National
Geographic
website: “What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?” Imagine
what happened a few weeks ago in parts of the northeastern United
States, including Washington DC, as a result of what's called the
“2012 North American Derecho” – several days without power –
extended to weeks, months, or even years in the worst-case scenario.
What
would such an event look like as it was happening? I don't know.
But in my imagination last Friday night, I wondered if what I was
seeing was indeed cascading transformer failures. Obviously not.
But at the time, it gave me pause. Catastrophic solar flare induced
power outage a danger from which we have little protection, and
virtually no preparation has been made. Which is foolish, because
solar-flare induced power outage not only has happened before (the
1989 Quebec Blackout) but will surely happen again. It's only a matter of time.
And the current solar cycle reaches its most active next year.
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